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https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/12/22/1065830/why-evs-wont-replace-hybrid-cars-anytime-soon/?truid=&utm_source=the_download&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the_download.unpaid.engagement&utm_term=&utm_content=12-23-2022&mc_cid=e4c6761949&mc_eid=83f7da3aad 

Why EVs won’t replace hybrid cars anytime soon

Why EVs won’t replace hybrid cars anytime soon

Plug-in hybrids won’t get the world to zero emissions, but they can help cut climate impacts somewhat. Toyota is betting they’ll stay in the mix for a while.

 

By

• Casey Crownhartarchive page

December 22, 2022

Stephanie Arnett/MITTR; Envato

 

 

The end could be coming soon for cars as we know them.

To limit global warming to 1.5 °C, the 2015 international Paris climate agreement set 2050 as a worldwide deadline to reach net-zero greenhouse-gas emissions. That means gas-powered vehicles will need to be largely off the road by then. And since cars typically have a lifetime of 15 to 20 years, reaching net zero in 2050 would likely mean no new production of gas-powered cars after about 2035.

 

EV가 곧 하이브리드 자동차를 대체하지 못하는 이유
플러그인 하이브리드는 세계의 탄소 배출량을 제로로 만들 수는 없지만 기후 영향을 어느 정도 줄이는 데 도움이 될 수 있습니다. Toyota는 한동안 혼합 상태를 유지할 것이라고 내기하고 있습니다.

에 의해케이시 크라운하트아카이브 페이지
2022년 12월 22일
가스 펌프 노즐로 레이스에 전기 자동차 플러그
스테파니 아넷/MITTR; 엔바토
우리가 알고 있는 자동차의 종말이 곧 올 수 있습니다.

지구 온난화를 1.5°C로 제한하기 위해 2015년 국제 파리 기후 협약 은 2050년을 전 세계적으로 순 제로 온실 가스 배출량에 도달하는 기한으로 설정했습니다. 즉, 가스 구동 차량은 그때까지 대부분 도로에서 벗어나야 합니다. 그리고 자동차의 수명은 일반적으로 15~20년이므로 2050년에 순 제로에 도달하면 약 2035년 이후에는 가스 구동 자동차의 신규 생산이 없을 것입니다.

GM 과 볼보 를 포함한 몇몇 주요 자동차 회사 는 전환을 예상하여 2035년 또는 그 이전에 전기 자동차만 생산할 계획을 발표했습니다. 그러나 모든 자동차 회사가 같은 페이지에 있는 것은 아닙니다.

Several major car companies, including GM and Volvo, have announced plans to produce only electric cars by or before 2035, in anticipation of the transition. But not all automakers are on the same page.

Notably, Toyota, the world’s largest automaker, has emphasized that it plans to offer a range of options, including hydrogen-fuel-cell vehicles, instead of focusing exclusively on electric vehicles. A Toyota spokesperson told MIT Technology Review that the company is focused on how to reduce carbon emissions most quickly, rather than how many vehicles of a certain type it can sell. 

 

The company has continued releasing new hybrid vehicles, including plug-in hybrids that can drive short distances on electricity using a small battery. In November, Toyota announced the 2023 edition of its Prius Prime, a plug-in hybrid. 

Some environmental groups have criticized the company’s slow approach to EVs. To get to zero emissions, they argue, we will need all-electric vehicles, and the sooner the better. 

But in recent interviews, Toyota CEO Akio Toyoda has raised doubts about just how fast the auto industry can pull a U-turn on fossil fuels, calling the US target of making EVs reach half of new car sales by 2030 a “tough ask.” While Toyota plans for EV sales to reach 3.5 million by 2030 (or 35% of its current annual sales), the company also sees hybrids as an affordable option customers will want, and one that can play a key role in cutting emissions. 

A tale of two hybrids

Two different categories of vehicles are referred to as hybrids. Conventional hybrid electric vehicles have a small battery that helps the gas-powered engine by recapturing energy during driving, like the energy that would otherwise be lost during braking. They cannot drive more than a couple of miles on battery power, and slowly at that. Rather, the battery helps boost gas mileage and can provide extra torque. The original Toyota Prius models are among the most familiar traditional hybrid vehicles.

Plug-in hybrid vehicles, on the other hand, have a battery about 10 times larger than the one in a traditional hybrid, and that battery can be plugged in and charged using electricity. Plug-in hybrids can typically run 25 to 50 miles on electricity, switching over to their gasoline engine for longer distances. The Prius Prime, introduced in 2012, is a plug-in hybrid.

Conventional hybrids are far more common in the US than either all-electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles, though sales of electric vehicles have grown quickly over the past several years. 

Hybrid vehicles are a straightforward story when it comes to climate effects: switching from a fully gas-powered vehicle to a hybrid version of the same model will mean reducing emissions about 20% while driving. 

Plug-in hybrids and EVs can be responsible for more significant emissions cuts, though figuring out exactly how much they’re helping the climate can be an involved exercise. The answer largely depends on driving and charging habits, says Georg Bieker, a researcher at the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT). 

Not surprisingly, electric vehicles produce less in lifetime carbon emissions than their gas-powered counterparts. A significant fraction of an EV’s emissions are attributable to manufacturing, especially the production of their batteries. Total emissions from EVs also depend on the sources of electricity used to charge their batteries.

EVs in the US correspond to between 60% and 68% lower lifetime emissions than gas-powered vehicles. In Europe, savings are higher, between 66% and 69%. In China, where the grid is powered by a higher fraction of highly polluting coal power, cuts are lower, between 37% and 45%. 

 

The gap between EVs and gas-powered vehicles is only expected to grow as the grid comes to be powered more by renewables and less by fossil fuels like coal. For example, EVs that hit the road in China in 2030 could produce 64% less in lifetime emissions than a gas car, compared with a maximum saving of 45% today.

Plug-in hybrid vehicles can offer significant emissions savings too: as much as 46% (compared with gas-powered vehicles) in the US. 

The difference between the US and other markets in the climate impact of plug-in hybrids, Bieker says, largely comes down to driving habits. Gas-powered vehicles in the US have higher fuel consumption, so there’s a bigger impact from switching to electricity. 

Driving and charging habits are at the heart of the debate over plug-in hybrids: the vehicles’ climate effects, depending on how they’re used. In ideal cases, the vehicles can use electricity for most of their mileage. Most new plug-in hybrids today have a range of between 30 and 50 miles on electricity, which is enough for many people’s daily commuting needs, says David Gohlke, an energy and environment analyst at Argonne National Laboratory. 

“I’m not necessarily a representative example of how someone uses the vehicle, but my plug-in hybrid is an electric vehicle for nine months of the year,” Gohlke says. He plugs in his vehicle every day when he gets home, which usually provides enough power to get him to and from work. Cold weather can limit the range, so he tends to use more gasoline in the winter, he adds. 

Drivers of plug-in hybrids can vary widely in their habits, however. “There’s a large gap between what is assumed in regulation and what the real performance looks like,” says Zifei Yang, head of light-duty vehicles at the ICCT. While some official EU estimates assume that drivers use electricity about 70 to 85% of the time, self-reported data show that the share for personal cars is closer to 45 to 50%. Drivers in the US have similar charging habits. 

The road forward

In the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act in the US, new tax credits apply to both plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles, provided they meet requirements on price and domestic manufacturing. 

But in other major markets, policy pushes are favoring electric vehicles over plug-ins. Some European nations, like Germany, are beginning to phase out subsidies for plug-in hybrids. In China, subsidies for plug-in vehicles are lower than those for electric vehicles, and they require a minimum electric range of around 50 miles, Yang says.

The various policies reflect differences in consumer attitudes: in particular, many Americans are still reluctant to buy EVs. 

Lack of access to charging, as well as concerns about range, are among the leading reasons US consumers say they wouldn’t consider an electric vehicle, says Mark Singer, a researcher at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Those concerns have made some consumers more receptive to plug-in hybrids than they are to electric vehicles, he adds.

 

Related Story

The U.S. only has 6,000 fast charging stations for EVs. Here’s where they all are.

Electric vehicles appear poised to drive into the mainstream—but where will they plug in?

In the US, there are just over 6,000 fast charging stations, and about 50,000 total locations that house EV chargers, as of the end of 2021. By comparison, there are about 150,000 fuel stations for gas-powered cars. Charging access is still a concern for many drivers, especially along interstate highways, where only 6% of EV charging stations are located. 

Today, a driver could easily go hundreds of miles between fast charging stations, especially in rural parts of the country. But the picture is changing quickly: the total number of charging stations has doubled in just the last few years in the US, and new federal funding will continue to support the network’s growth.

The transition from internal-combustion engines is well underway. EV sales continue to grow: they hit 10% of global sales in 2022. The picture isn’t the same everywhere, though: China saw nearly double the global average, at 19%, and the US lags behind at 5.5%. 

The EU recently banned new sales of gas-powered cars, including plug-in hybrids and anything else that can burn fossil fuels, starting in 2035. California and New York enacted similar bans that also take effect in 2035, though sales of some plug-in hybrids will still be allowed there. 

Transportation’s decarbonization won’t look the same everywhere. How plug-in hybrids fit in with this transition remains to be seen, especially in the near term, and especially in markets that haven’t yet passed strict regulations around future vehicle sales. 

Even if the relatively modest emissions cuts that hybrids contribute don’t align with aspirational climate goals, people may still turn to those cars, at least for the near future. Toyota, for one, is betting that plug-in hybrids, along with conventional hybrid models, will find acceptance among consumers. And it’s hard to argue that the world’s largest automaker doesn’t know how to sell cars. 

 

 

 

특히 세계 최대 자동차 업체인 토요타는 전기차에만 집중하지 않고 수소연료전지차 등 다양한 옵션을 제공할 계획이라고 강조 했다. Toyota 대변인은 MIT Technology Review에 회사가 판매할 수 있는 특정 유형의 차량 수보다 탄소 배출량을 가장 빨리 줄이는 방법에 초점을 맞추고 있다고 말했습니다. 


이 회사는 소형 배터리를 사용하여 전기로 단거리를 주행할 수 있는 플러그인 하이브리드를 포함하여 새로운 하이브리드 차량을 지속적으로 출시하고 있습니다. 11월에 Toyota는 플러그인 하이브리드인 Prius Prime의 2023년 에디션을 발표했습니다. 

일부 환경 단체는 EV에 대한 회사의 느린 접근 방식을 비판 했습니다. 탄소 배출 제로에 도달하려면 완전 전기 자동차가 필요하며 빠르면 빠를수록 좋다고 그들은 주장합니다. 

그러나 최근 인터뷰에서 Toyota Akio Toyoda CEO는 2030년까지 EV가 신차 판매의 절반에 도달하도록 하는 미국의 목표를 "어려운 요구"라고 말하면서 자동차 산업이 화석 연료에서 얼마나 빨리 유턴할 수 있는지에 대해 의구심을 제기 했습니다. Toyota 는 2030년까지 EV 판매를 350만 대(또는 현재 연간 판매의 35%)에 도달할 계획이지만 하이브리드도 고객이 원할 저렴한 옵션이자 배기가스 감축에 핵심적인 역할을 할 수 있는 옵션으로 보고 있습니다. 

두 하이브리드 이야기
두 가지 범주의 차량을 하이브리드라고 합니다. 기존의 하이브리드 전기 자동차에는 제동 중에 손실되는 에너지와 같이 주행 중에 에너지를 회수하여 가스 구동 엔진을 돕는 작은 배터리가 있습니다. 그들은 배터리 전원으로 2마일 이상을 운전할 수 없으며 그 속도는 느립니다. 오히려 배터리는 연비를 높이고 추가 토크를 제공할 수 있습니다. 원래 Toyota Prius 모델은 가장 친숙한 전통적인 하이브리드 차량 중 하나입니다.

반면 플러그인 하이브리드 차량은 기존 하이브리드 차량보다 약 10배 큰 배터리를 탑재하고 있으며, 해당 배터리를 연결해 전기로 충전할 수 있다. 플러그인 하이브리드는 일반적으로 전기로 25~50마일을 달릴 수 있으며 더 먼 거리를 위해 가솔린 엔진으로 전환합니다. 2012년 출시된 프리우스 프라임은 플러그인 하이브리드다.

기존의 하이브리드는 지난 몇 년 동안 전기 자동차의 판매가 빠르게 성장했지만 미국에서는 완전 전기 또는 플러그인 하이브리드 자동차보다 훨씬 더 일반적입니다. 


하이브리드 차량은 기후 영향에 관한 한 간단한 이야기입니다. 완전 가스 구동 차량에서 동일한 모델의 하이브리드 버전으로 전환하면 운전 중 배출량이 약 20% 감소합니다. 

플러그인 하이브리드와 전기 자동차는 기후에 얼마나 도움이 되는지 정확히 파악하는 것이 관련 운동이 될 수 있지만 더 중요한 배출 감소에 대한 책임이 있을 수 있습니다. 그 대답은 주로 운전과 충전 습관에 달려 있다고 ICCT(International Council on Clean Transportation)의 연구원인  게오르그 비커( Georg Bieker )는 말합니다.

당연하게도 전기 자동차는 가솔린 자동차보다 수명 기간 동안 탄소 배출량이 적습니다. EV 배출량의 상당 부분은 제조, 특히 배터리 생산에 기인합니다. EV의 총 배출량은 배터리 충전에 사용되는 전기 공급원에 따라 다릅니다.

미국의 전기 자동차는 내연기관 자동차보다 수명 기간 동안 탄소 배출량이 60~68% 낮습니다. 유럽에서는 저축률이 66%에서 69%로 더 높습니다. 전력망이 오염도가 높은 석탄 발전의 더 높은 부분에 의해 전력을 공급받는 중국에서는 삭감이 37%에서 45% 사이로 더 낮습니다. 


EV와 가스 구동 차량 사이의 격차는 그리드가 석탄과 같은 화석 연료에 의해 덜 재생 가능 에너지에 의해 더 많이 구동됨에 따라 커질 것으로 예상됩니다. 예를 들어, 2030년에 중국에서 도로를 달리는 전기 자동차는 현재 최대 45% 절약에 비해 가스 자동차보다 평생 배출량이 64% 적습니다.

플러그인 하이브리드 차량도 상당한 배출 감소 효과를 제공할 수 있습니다. 미국에서 최대 46%(가스 구동 차량에 비해)입니다. 


플러그인 하이브리드가 기후에 미치는 영향에서 미국과 다른 시장의 차이는 주로 운전 습관으로 귀결된다고 Bieker는 말합니다. 미국의 가스 구동 차량은 연료 소비량이 높기 때문에 전기로 전환할 때의 영향이 더 큽니다. 

운전 및 충전 습관은 플러그인 하이브리드에 대한 논쟁의 핵심입니다. 사용 방법에 따른 차량의 기후 영향입니다. 이상적인 경우 차량은 주행 거리의 대부분을 전기로 사용할 수 있습니다. 오늘날 대부분의 새로운 플러그인 하이브리드는 전기로 30~50마일의 범위를 가지며, 이는 많은 사람들의 일상적인 통근 요구에 충분하다고 Argonne National Laboratory의 에너지 및 환경 분석가인  David Gohlke 는 말합니다.

Gohlke는 "누군가가 차량을 어떻게 사용하는지에 대한 전형적인 예는 아니지만 제 플러그인 하이브리드는 1년 중 9개월 동안 전기 자동차입니다."라고 말합니다. 그는 집에 도착하면 매일 차량에 플러그를 꽂습니다. 일반적으로 출퇴근에 충분한 전력을 공급합니다. 추운 날씨는 범위를 제한할 수 있으므로 겨울에 더 많은 휘발유를 사용하는 경향이 있다고 그는 덧붙입니다. 

그러나 플러그인 하이브리드의 운전자는 습관이 매우 다양할 수 있습니다. ICCT의 경량 차량 책임자인 Zifei Yang 은 "규제에서 가정한 것과 실제 성능 사이에는 큰 차이가 있습니다."라고 말합니다 . 일부 공식 EU 추정치에서는 운전자가 약 70~85%의 시간 동안 전기를 사용한다고 가정하지만 자체 보고 데이터에 따르면 개인 차량의 점유율은 45~50%에 가깝습니다. 미국의 운전자들은 유사한 충전 습관을 가지고 있습니다. 

앞으로의 길
최근 미국에서 통과된 인플레이션 감소법(Inflation Reduction Act)에서는 가격 및 국내 제조 요건을 충족하는 경우 플러그인 하이브리드와 전기 자동차 모두에 새로운 세금 공제가 적용됩니다. 

그러나 다른 주요 시장에서는 정책 추진이 플러그인보다 전기 자동차를 선호하고 있습니다. 독일과 같은 일부 유럽 국가에서는 플러그인 하이브리드에 대한 보조금을 단계적으로 중단하기 시작했습니다. 중국에서는 플러그인 차량에 대한 보조금이 전기 자동차보다 낮으며 약 50마일의 최소 전기 주행 거리가 필요하다고 Yang은 말합니다.

다양한 정책은 소비자 태도의 차이를 반영합니다. 특히 많은 미국인은 여전히 ​​EV 구매를 꺼립니다. 

National Renewable Energy Laboratory의 연구원인 Mark Singer는 미국 소비자들이 전기 자동차를 고려하지 않을 것이라고 말하는 주된 이유 중 하나는 충전에 대한 접근 부족과 주행 거리에 대한 우려라고 말합니다. 이러한 우려로 인해 일부 소비자는 전기 자동차보다 플러그인 하이브리드를 더 잘 받아들이게 되었다고 덧붙였습니다.


관련 스토리
illustarted map of US charging stations
미국에는 전기차용 급속 충전소가 6,000개밖에 없습니다. 여기 그들이 모두 있는 곳입니다.
전기 자동차는 주류로 진입할 준비가 된 것처럼 보이지만 어디에 연결될까요?

미국에는 2021년 말 기준으로 6,000개 이상의 급속 충전소 가 있고 총 약 50,000개의 EV 충전기가 있습니다. 이에 비해 휘발유 자동차용 주유소는 약 150,000개입니다. 충전 접근성은 특히 EV 충전소의 6%만이 위치한 주간 고속도로를 따라 많은 운전자들에게 여전히 우려 사항입니다. 

오늘날 운전자는 특히 시골 지역에서 고속 충전소 사이를 수백 마일을 쉽게 이동할 수 있습니다. 그러나 그림은 빠르게 변하고 있습니다. 미국의 총 충전소 수는 지난 몇 년 동안 두 배가 되었으며 새로운 연방 기금은 네트워크의 성장을 계속 지원할 것입니다.

내연기관으로부터의 전환은 순조롭게 진행되고 있습니다. EV 판매는 계속해서 증가하고 있습니다. EV는 2022년에 전 세계 판매의 10%에 도달합니다. 그러나 그림 은 모든 곳에서 동일하지 않습니다 . 중국은 전 세계 평균의 거의 두 배인 19%를 기록했고 미국은 5.5%로 뒤처졌습니다. 

EU 는 최근 2035년부터 플러그인 하이브리드 및 화석 연료를 태울 수 있는 모든 것을 포함하여 가스 구동 자동차의 신규 판매를 금지 했습니다. 하이브리드에서는 여전히 허용됩니다. 

교통수단의 탈탄소화는 모든 곳에서 동일하게 보이지 않을 것입니다. 플러그인 하이브리드가 이러한 전환에 어떻게 부합하는지, 특히 단기적으로, 특히 미래 차량 판매에 대한 엄격한 규제를 아직 통과하지 못한 시장에서 아직 지켜봐야 합니다. 

하이브리드가 기여하는 상대적으로 온건한 배출량 감축이 열망하는 기후 목표와 일치하지 않더라도 사람들은 적어도 가까운 장래에 여전히 그 자동차로 눈을 돌릴 수 있습니다. Toyota는 기존 하이브리드 모델과 함께 플러그인 하이브리드가 소비자들 사이에서 받아들여질 것이라고 장담하고 있습니다. 그리고 세계 최대의 자동차 회사가 자동차 판매 방법을 모른다고 주장하기는 어렵습니다.